Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated this week after India launched missile strikes on its long-time rival, killing more than 30 people.

India was retaliating for a terror attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir on April 22, which killed 26 civilians, most of them Indian. New Delhi has blamed a Pakistan-based militant group for the incident.

Pakistan has vowed revenge for the airstrikes, calling them an “act of war.”

If a full-scale war does break out between the two nuclear powers, it wouldn’t be the first time they have fought over the disputed region of Kashmir. In fact, the two sides have been in conflict over Kashmir since 1947.

The people of Kashmir, meanwhile, are stuck in the middle of this geopolitical rivalry, trapped in a security state with little hope for the future.

Life before the April 22 terror attack

Before the attack on the tourists last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government had made repeated claims that “normalcy” was returning to the region.

However, Kashmir remains one of the most heavily militarized zones in the world and the people have long suffered human rights abuses the Indian government has justified on the grounds of counter-terrorism.

In 2019, the Modi government revoked Article 370 of the Indian constitution, which had granted a special status to the state of Jammu and Kashmir, along with a high degree of autonomy.

The revocation of this article brought Jammu and Kashmir, now a “union territory”, under the full control of the Modi government in New Delhi.

This decision was made on behalf of Kashmiris, not in consultation with them. Speaking with Kashmiris in 2020 as part of my ongoing research on the region, there was a huge sense of betrayal at the move.

One of my interview subjects claimed Indian security forces were “instilling fear and psychological warfare” in Kashmir. Another said, “it’s no exaggeration to say after every three kilometres, there’s a checkpoint” manned by Indian security forces. The situation worsened during the Covid pandemic, with increased lockdowns and curfews.

Some hope did return last September when Kashmiris were able to vote in regional assembly elections for the first time in a decade.

The election meant the new local assembly would have the power to make and amend laws, debate local issues and approve decisions for the territory, particularly in education and culture. However, this doesn’t mean “normalcy” had returned, nor was Kashmir peaceful and tranquil.

In February of this year, there were reports that Indian security forces had conducted operations against suspected militants, resulting in a lockdown and 500 people being detained. A young Kashmiri man died by suicide after allegedly being tortured by police in February. The next day, another man was shot dead by the army.

These are just two incidents that are part of a wider cycle of violence that has become a part of everyday life in Kashmir.

Life after April 22

After the April 22 tourist attack, the central government has doubled down on its heavy-handed approach to Kashmir under the guise of counter-terrorism.

Kashmiris have been subjected to an increased security presence, new lockdowns, “cordon and search operations”, social media surveillance, house demolitions and other draconian measures.

Police say some 1,900 Kashmiris have been detained and questioned since the attack. This number will no doubt continue to rise.

It is no wonder Kashmiris were saying “everyone lives in fear”, even before India launched missile strikes on its neighbor. Possible retaliation from Pakistan – or a wider war – now looms, with Kashmiris again on the front lines.

There is a very big concern that right-wing Indian media outlets and social media posts are now encouraging the Indian government to respond to the terror attack in the same way Israel has retaliated against Hamas in Gaza.

Some commentators are portraying the April 22 attack as India’s version of the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, which could become a dangerous precedent for what the future holds for Kashmir.

Israel also recently announced its support for India’s right to “self-defense.”

In addition, the rise in right-wing rhetoric increases the likelihood of Islamophobic attacks taking place against Kashmiris, as well as Muslims in India more broadly.

Pathways to peace?

Each war fought between India and Pakistan over Kashmir has ended with negotiations and treaties.

Bilateral relations have been attempted numerous times over the years and would be a preferable option to increased escalation in the current conflict.

Ultimately, it is the Kashmiris who suffer the most whenever tensions boil over between the two nuclear powers. As one young man recently said:

My parents don’t allow me to step outside. Every time I get a call, I feel a wave of anxiety, fearing it might be the police.

Kashmir might be a wonderland, a mini-Switzerland or a paradise for others, but for us, it is an open prison. Everyone lives in fear. What future do we have?

Leoni Connah is lecturer in international relations, Flinders University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.