Iran has attacked US bases in the Gulf States on the pretext that they were used to some extent by the US in its joint campaign with Israel against Iran. By that standard, however, it’s notable that Iran hasn’t attacked the two US bases in Turkey, namely its airbase in Incirlik and its radar one in Kurecik.
Turkey directly borders Iran, after all, unlike the Arab kingdoms on the other side of the Gulf or nearby in Kuwait’s case. One might therefore expect that Iran would have hit the US bases there by now. Here’s why it hasn’t:
1. The Gulf States Are Easy Targets, Very Vulnerable, & Low-Risk
Iran believes that the Gulf States aren’t anywhere near as prepared for war as Turkey is, their economies can be shattered by drone strikes alone and their armed forces’ lack of military experience, apart from some of them fighting the Houthis, means that Iran doesn’t think they could retaliate all that significantly.
There’s also much longer and worse mutual animosity between them, especially given that Iran believes that they’re also persecuting its fellow Shiite believes, than between Iran and Turkey by a long shot.
Nevertheless, the aforesaid calculations might be mistaken and could come back to bite Iran depending on how its conflict with the US and Israel evolves.
For instance, if Iran’s air defenses are destroyed by those two, then one, some, or all of the Gulf States that it attacked might unilaterally or in coalition with each other (even if some sit it out) carry out highly publicized bombings of Iran for revenge.
That would be a humiliating way to end the war if Iran is defeated soon after, even if it doesn’t officially surrender.
2. The Turkish Armed Forces Have Proven Their Formidableness
Whatever one’s opinion about Turkey’s domestic and/or foreign policies might be, it would be dishonest to deny how formidable its armed forces are after years of battle against the now-defeated Syrian Kurds, which at one time fielded their own unofficial armed forces at the apex of their power.
Turkey also has experience fighting General Haftar’s forces in Libya and speculatively against Armenia during 2020’s Karabakh Conflict. These deployments helped its armed forces perfect their drone warfare skills too.
Turkey is therefore able to deter Iran solely through its proven strength, and if provoked, it could invade Iran just like Iraq did and thus throw its armed forces into the dilemma of either letting them barrel through or assembling in the field to stop them at the risk of becoming easy targets for the US and Israel.
Iran is already struggling to withstand those two’s aerial onslaught, so even the pluckiest newly decentralized units of the IRGC might reasonably think twice before targeting Turkey and risking that.
3. Turkey’s NATO Membership & Alliance With Azerbaijan Deter Iran
Even if Iran as a state or one of its decentralized IRGC units underestimated the formidableness of the Turkish Armed Forces, Turkey is a NATO member and also in a separate alliance with Azerbaijan, so targeting the US’ bases there would risk massively expanding the war.
Turkey could request Article 5 assistance, which some of the bloc’s European members might provide with the expectation of Turkey helping them in the political fantasy of a Russian invasion, but all such aid would be at Ukraine’s expense.
As for the Azerbaijani angle, ethnic Azeris comprise the majority of Northern Iran, and there are more of them there than in Azerbaijan itself. Azerbaijan might thus intervene with Turkey in what some consider to be “South Azerbaijan.”
Even if neither invades, at least not right away, they could still stoke separatist unrest for “Balkanization” purposes and to further weaken the country amidst US-Israeli strikes. NATO’s and/or Azerbaijan’s involvement through Turkey might therefore prove too much for Iran to handle.
Simply put, the Gulf States are viewed by Iran as collectively being much weaker than just Turkey itself, plus they’re incomparably more vulnerable to being massively destabilized even by drone strikes alone.
This is the main reason why Iran has attacked them and not Turkey despite all of them hosting US bases. It also likely knows how formidable the Turkish Armed Forces are and doesn’t want to mess with them, let alone their NATO and/or Azerbaijani allies, whose direct involvement could lead to Iran’s swift defeat.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished here with editing for clarity and fluency. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
