Wars are unpredictable. But one predictable consequence is that people run for their lives. As conflict flared again in the Middle East, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees warned last week that “once people are forced to flee, there’s no quick way back”.
Of course, you don’t need to tell Ukrainians that. Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 caused Europe’s biggest displacement crisis in decades as millions fled, most of them women and children. Three years later, there are still more than 5mn Ukrainians living abroad. How are they doing? Did they find jobs? And will they ever go back?
The good news is that they have found jobs at much higher rates than is typical for refugees. Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of the international migration division at the OECD, told me that in many countries, their employment rate was “already maybe twice what you observe for other refugees”. Although comparisons are tricky due to varied data sources, Ukrainians’ employment rates appear particularly high in countries like Poland, where there were pre-existing migration flows and language similarities. In contrast, they are much lower in places such as Norway, where there is a bigger language barrier.
Overall, their incomes are rising after a tough few years. According to regular surveys commissioned by the Centre for Economic Strategy, a Ukrainian think-tank, the proportion of refugees who said they had to save or borrow to afford clothing rose from 7 per cent before the war to 28 per cent by November 2022. But by December 2024, that share had decreased back to 7 per cent.
Why have they done better in the jobs market than other refugees? For a start, the macroeconomic environment helped. Their displacement coincided with a time of unusually tight labour markets, especially in nearby countries like Poland and Czech Republic. Indeed, recent studies on those two countries suggest that Ukrainians have helped to fill job shortages, with no sign they displaced native workers.
Most countries also allowed people fleeing Ukraine to apply for jobs straight away. The EU extended “temporary protection” status which meant Ukrainians didn’t have to apply for individual asylum and could instantly access jobs, housing, schooling and social welfare. They could also choose to settle in places with strong local job markets.
In contrast, many countries ban individual asylum seekers from working while their applications are processed. The UK, for example, does not allow asylum seekers to work while their claims are considered (unless the process takes longer than 12 months) and gives them just £49.18 per week to live on. This sets people up to fail. A study of German data found that employment rates were about 20 per cent lower for refugees who had to wait an additional seven months before they were allowed to enter the labour market. It took up to a decade for this gap to disappear.
On top of that, a survey across EU countries suggests that roughly two-thirds of Ukrainian refugees have tertiary education; more than 40 per cent of respondents had a master’s degree or higher. Not only are they more educated than most other refugee groups, they are more educated than many host country populations too.
That said, many have had to take jobs for which they are overqualified. Whether due to language barriers or the inability to convert credentials, OECD data suggests that displaced Ukrainians in Europe are concentrated in accommodation, food service, administration and manufacturing roles.
Do they plan to return if the war ends? Ukraine must hope so. The permanent loss of so many highly-educated women would not be good news for the war-battered economy, while the loss of children would worsen its already poor demographic outlook.
But the relatively successful integration of Ukrainian refugees abroad (albeit with the caveat of underutilised skills) could become a double-edged sword for Ukraine. The more people settle in, the less they say they want to go back. According to CES surveys, the share of refugees who say they definitely plan to return has dropped from 50 per cent in November 2022 to 20 per cent in December last year.
A well-funded effort, supported by the international community, to rebuild housing and economic capacity would probably encourage some to return. And of course, there could be some advantages to Ukraine in having a vast diaspora community, which could assist with remittances, investment and trade links. But it is a reminder that once war begins and people scatter, it is very hard to put all the pieces back together.
Source: Financial Times
