India, the world’s largest democracy, has stayed on the sidelines while Ukraine fights on the front lines to defend democratic values and the international order against an imperialist Russia. Moscow seeks to subjugate and colonize Ukraine, as it has done for centuries, but Ukraine has resisted fiercely and is now bringing the fight to Russia. Despite this, India has remained cautious and continues to maintain close ties with Moscow.
Both Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh have canceled their trips to Moscow for Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade. Instead, India will send a lower-ranking official, with reports suggesting the decision is partly linked to ongoing tensions with Pakistan. India also launched fresh strikes against Pakistan, sparking worries about a larger conflict brewing between the nuclear states.
For other leaders who plan on attempting the parade in Moscow, there are real concerns that Ukraine could threaten the parade. As a result, Putin is desperate for a three-day ceasefire to help protect his parade.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico condemned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for warning foreign delegations not to attend Russia’s May 9 Victory Day parade, calling Zelensky’s comments disrespectful.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of keeping “nothing sacred” after he rejected Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a temporary ceasefire during Russia’s Victory Day commemorations, claiming Zelenskyy had “hit rock bottom” by warning of possible threats to veterans attending the May 9 events.
“They are responsible for your safety. We will not provide any guarantees, because we do not know what Russia might do on those dates,” Zelensky said. Meanwhile, for the third year in a row, occupied Sevastopol was forced to cancel its Victory Day military parade, citing safety concerns amid ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets across Russia. Ukrainian drones over the last few days have continued targeting Moscow.
Ukraine has come a long way. In February 2022, many Western governments expected it to collapse within days. Now, Ukraine has developed a domestic arsenal of long-range drones and missiles and is striking targets deep inside Russia. Putin may hope that parading alongside Chinese leader Xi Jinping will project strength, but the reality is that he is facing a symbolic defeat. The Kremlin is now reduced to quietly pleading with Ukraine not to strike Moscow.
Yet while Ukraine demonstrates military ingenuity and defiance, India continues to walk a careful line of neutrality. To understand why, it’s helpful to examine the deeper strategic logic behind India’s positioning.
“I don’t think India is going to commit to either side,” said Branislav Slantchev, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “They have never done this and they are in a complicated neighborhood.”
Treston Wheat, chief geopolitical officer at Insight Forward and adjunct professor at Georgetown University, explained that India’s position on the war in Ukraine stems more from tradition than indifference. “India’s stance isn’t about a lack of democratic solidarity,” he said, “it’s about strategic tradition.”
Wheat pointed out that “since the Cold War, India has maintained a posture of non-alignment, preferring to avoid choosing sides in conflicts between major powers.” That legacy, he noted, continues even as India increasingly asserts itself on the global stage.
“Its relatively cautious response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reflects both historical ties with Moscow and a deep-rooted preference for strategic autonomy,” Wheat added. “India sees itself as a regional and eventually global power, but one that moves at its own pace, balancing relationships across geopolitical divides.”
“Supporting Ukraine more forcefully,” he concluded, “would require redefining that balancing act, something New Delhi has not yet shown it’s ready to do.”
Wheat added, “India isn’t looking to replace its relationship with Russia, and aligning too strongly with Ukraine could undermine its defense ties with Moscow. India is still a major purchaser of Russian military hardware, and it prefers not to alienate a long-standing supplier while it’s still building its own defense manufacturing base.”
But over the long term, Wheat argued,“India could benefit significantly from a deeper partnership with Ukraine, particularly in defense innovation. Ukraine’s experience with adaptive warfare, battlefield innovation, and drone production could offer insights that align well with Modi’s ‘Make in India’ vision for the defense sector. The question isn’t whether Ukraine offers value; it’s whether India is ready to shift its geopolitical calculus to embrace that value.”
“Ukraine has effectively turned into a real-time laboratory for modern asymmetric warfare, particularly in the use of drones, loitering munitions, electronic warfare, and rapid battlefield adaptation,” said Wheat. “These are exactly the kinds of capabilities India would need in a high-intensity conflict with China along the Line of Actual Control or in the maritime domain.”
Wheat argued that India stands to gain more than just tactical insights. “More importantly, Ukraine has demonstrated how to mobilize civil society, private sector innovation, and field-level experimentation to solve tactical problems quickly. India could learn not just about the hardware, but about the organizational mindset required to wage modern war.”
The question, he said, is not about relevance but about receptivity. “The challenge is whether India is politically willing to learn from a country that isn’t part of its usual strategic orbit. If it is, there’s a great deal of value waiting to be absorbed.” Other experts agree that the strategic logic for closer ties with Ukraine is mounting, not just politically, but tactically.
“Russia’s war has exposed both supply-chain fragility and quality issues in Russian kit, accelerating India’s shift away from Moscow as its primary arms source,” said Fedir Martynov, a partner at Trident Forward. “Any extra political or technical backing New Delhi gives Kyiv therefore doubles as leverage on the Kremlin and as insurance against a tighter Moscow-Beijing axis.”
Martynov emphasized the operational edge that Ukraine has built under fire. “Ukraine has built a battlefield drone complex that ranges from $400 FPV kamikazes to multi-domain swarms, powered by a start-up ecosystem and a streamlined acquisitions pipeline that moves ideas from garage to front line in weeks,” he noted.
“Its operators have learned to fight through aggressive GNSS jamming by using visual navigation and decentralized control, skills India will need along a GPS-denied Himalayan frontier.”
That value becomes even clearer when viewed through the lens of Ukraine’s battlefield innovations, something defense experts believe India would do well to study closely.
Bill Cole, founder of the Peace Through Strength Institute, commented on the strategic urgency of India needing to learn from Ukraine’s experience: “India is staring down a PLA that has spent years investing in drone warfare.” The solution, he argues, lies not in theory but in lived experience. “You want to neutralize that? Ukraine is the partner who has already bled for that knowledge.”
“India cannot claim to counterbalance China while indirectly enabling Russia. Sooner or later, that contradiction will collapse,” said Cole.
He pointed to Ukraine’s maritime ingenuity as another lesson in adaptive strategy. “Ukraine didn’t have a navy. So they built one – from garage tech and courage. And they’ve punched a hole in the Russian Black Sea Fleet. That’s the blueprint for asymmetric warfare,” noted Cole. “If India ever faces a maritime threat from China, it’ll need the same mindset. Nimble, fast, precise, and unpredictable. Ukraine is showing the world how to fight smart.”
David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an associate research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. He can be found on X @DVKirichenko.
