Nine months after falling definitively short in the 2025 federal election, Pierre Poilievre is facing a mandatory leadership review at this weekend’s Conservative Party convention.

By all accounts, he’s likely to cruise through the review, since he enjoys strong support among Conservative Party members.

That support extends to the broader voting coalition Poilievre has assembled, which continues to stand behind his leadership for the most part. Recent polling suggests that more than three quarters of Conservative voters view him as doing an “excellent” job.

The problem for Poilievre and the party, however, is that among those who did not vote Conservative, the view is starkly different. In that same recent Abacus poll, 62 per cent of non-Conservative voters reported he’s doing a “poor” or “very poor” job.

In a sense, Poilievre is the most successful unsuccessful leader in Canadian politics.

The Justin Trudeau problem

If you count by share of the vote, Poilievre led the party to its best showing in nearly 40 years. Brian Mulroney was the last leader of a Conservative party to crack 40 per cent of the vote share across the country. He also got the party to its best share of seats since Stephen Harper’s lone majority victory in 2011.

Poilievre managed to pull together, and even expand, the coalition of Conservative voters, appealing in particular to younger male voters, and was making inroads with labour voters — at least until Donald Trump showed up for his second term as American president.

Thanks largely due to Trump’s threats to make Canada a 51st state, Liberals performed even better in the election. Defying the odds, newly minted Prime Minister Mark Carney led the Liberals back from what seemed like certain defeat, assisted by the emergence of a far more more belligerent United States following Trump’s return.

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Canada’s Conservatives, with an assist from Donald Trump, are down — but they’re far from out

The Liberals bested the Conservatives in vote share and seat share, cementing Carney’s leadership of the country.

An even bigger problem for Poilievre is that his own approach to politics as opposition leader almost certainly influenced the Liberal rebound after Justin Trudeau stepped down — and when an electoral landslide seemed all but assured for the Conservatives.

Because Canadians considered Trudeau a problem, Poilievre’s take-no-prisoners approach paid significant dividends. The Conservatives led the Liberals by an increasingly comfortable margin throughout 2024. Language about the country being broken didn’t seem out of place to those tired of the status quo.

The Donald Trump impact

As soon as Trump made himself the problem, however, most Canadians looked for a much more fulsome response than Poilievre was able to offer. Rather than a leader focused on criticizing Canada, the majority of Canadians above all wanted one who promised to stand up against the American threat.

Similarities between Poilievre and Trump — sometimes rhetorical, other times substantive, and sometimes both — deepened the suspicion.

This divisiveness has continued to plague the party in the months since the 2025 election. One Conservative MP has decided to resign and two others have actually crossed the floor to join the Liberals, bringing the governing party within a hair’s breadth of a majority.

Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont cited Poilievre’s leadership style specifically in explaining his decision to become a Liberal, suggesting the Conservative leader was too negative at a time when the country needed solutions-oriented politics.

This remains the quandary for the Conservative leader and the party: everything Poilievre does to secure the support of the more populist wing of the conservative movement in Canada tends to alienate the rest of the country, while any move to the centre risks condemnation from those further to the right.

Poilievre has won over core Conservatives and alienated the rest of the country, including that crucial share of voters necessary to push the Conservatives over the top.

Repelling more than he attracts

There is, to be sure, a path to victory still available to the Conservatives. A resurgent NDP, or some other wobble in Liberal fortunes, could be enough to put the Conservatives over the top next federal election.

They cannot count on such luck, however. Faced with the generational event that is the second Trump presidency, many Canadians are viewing the current Canada-U.S. tensions as an “us/them” existential battle, with other issues pushed into the background.

This week’s premier’s meeting in New Brunswick, for example, focused heavily on national unity. So too did Carney’s meeting with premiers in Ottawa.

This seems likely to persist so long as the U.S. poses a threat to Canadian security and prosperity. And as long as Poilievre presents himself as being sympathetic to Trump’s populist project, Canadians not already in the Conservative column will look to keep him out of the Prime Minister’s Office.

The most likely result, then, of this weekend’s review is a strong endorsement of Poilievre’s leadership and a continuation of the status quo: a country that has come together on a question of existential importance, but an opposition leader who divides, repelling more than he attracts.