With presidential election day coming on June 3, South Korea’s political landscape is reaching a fever pitch. As of May 29, election law prohibits the release of new opinion polls, meaning the electorate will head into the final stretch blind to any last-minute shifts.
Polls conducted on May 28 reveal inconsistent results. One survey shows opposition Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung with 43.6% support, just ahead of ruling party candidate Kim Moon-soo’s 42.7%.
Another puts Lee at 46% and Kim at 41%.
A third poll has Lee with a significant lead of 49.2%, compared with Kim’s 36.8%.
The variation underscores deep voter uncertainty and the increasingly unpredictable nature of this election.
Former presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak have both thrown their weight behind Kim Moon-soo, the candidate from the conservative People Power Party. Their endorsements cement Kim’s position as the standard-bearer for the conservative establishment.
‘To prevent the rise of a monstrous dictatorship‘
Then came a political bombshell on May 27: Lee Nak-yon – former prime minister under Moon Jae-in, prominent figure in the pro-Moon faction and one-time leader of the Democratic Party – endorsed Kim Moon-soo.
Now serving as chairman of the New Future Democratic Party, Lee publicly declared on May 29, “After deep deliberation, I came to the conclusion that Kim Moon-soo, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, is indispensable if we are to prevent the rise of a monstrous dictatorship.”
He continued, “Faced with a national crisis – the emergence of a monster dictatorship – I believe we must transcend our differences of faction, ideology, and region.”
According to Lee, such a regime would represent a historic rupture: “A monster dictatorship means a situation unprecedented since the founding of the Republic, where one individual seizes control of the legislative, executive, and judicial branches.”
In Lee’s view, the Democratic Party has shed its pluralistic roots and devolved into a personality cult centered on Lee Jae-myung. Supporting Kim, he argued, was the only realistic way to block the consolidation of authoritarian power under the guise of democratic rule.
The endorsement led to Lee Nak-yon’s immediate expulsion from the Democratic Party’s advisory council – a stark indication of how far the party has changed under Lee Jae-myung’s leadership.
Lee Jae-myung’s iron grip on the party
Lee Jae-myung has made no secret of his views on political control. He has said in the past, “Power should be used ruthlessly” and “political revenge is something you do covertly.”
True to that ethos, Lee has purged his party of pro-Moon elements. What was once a broad-based coalition has morphed into a one-man show, echoing North Korea’s communist party.
The shake-up was so extensive that even former President Moon reportedly considered publicly withdrawing his support.
Long-time Democrats have grown alienated, while Lee’s loyalist base now dominates the party. It is increasingly operating as a vehicle for Lee’s personal power.
A scandal erupts during the debate
Further plaguing Lee’s campaign was a scandal involving his son that resurfaced during a televised debate on May 27.
Reform Party candidate Lee Jun-seok asked Lee Jae-myung, “If someone says he wants to stick chopsticks into women’s genitals, would this constitute misogyny?”
Lee Jae-myung sidestepped the question, replying, “Please ask questions in order and follow the rules.”
The remark was not hypothetical. Lee Jae-myung’s son was fined 5 million won for making that exact comment online in October 2024.
Instead of addressing the issue directly, the Democratic Party flipped the narrative. Leftist civic groups held press conferences demanding that Lee Jun-seok apologize for raising the issue publicly and withdraw his candidacy. They also filed a criminal complaint and portrayed Lee Jae-myung as the victim of a misogynistic attack by Lee Jun-seok.
Lee Jae-myung’s foreign policy sparks alarm
Lee’s foreign policy views have also caused concern. On March 22, 2024, he said, “Why should we interfere in cross-strait [China-Taiwan] relations? Why should we care what happens to the Taiwan Strait? Shouldn’t we just take care of ourselves?”
Kim Moon-soo responded pointedly: “The Chinese Communist Party is the enemy that invaded our country in the Korean War, and the US is the country that helped us. How could you put the US and China on the same level?”
Lee Jun-seok offered his own sharp critique: “We’d be in serious trouble if President Trump said that South Korea can deal with North Korea on its own and the US will wash its hands of both sides.”
Lee’s push to expand the Supreme Court
Another controversial proposal from the Democratic Party is to expand the number of Supreme Court justices, currently 14, by up to 100.
Critics have strongly opposed the measure, saying it would politicize the judiciary. Since justices are nominated by the president and confirmed by the National Assembly, they see the proposal as a move to stack the court with Lee’s loyalists.
Critics argue the expansion would compromise the court’s function. The Supreme Court’s authority relies on a small and consistent bench capable of delivering coherent legal interpretations. Expanding it up to 100 members, they warn, would fragment its rulings and erode judicial integrity.
More troubling for conservatives, the expansion is viewed as a mechanism for political revenge. With legal cases pending against former government officials, they believe the move is designed to secure favorable outcomes and protect Lee and his cronies.
What’s at stake on June 3
This election is not just a contest between left and right – it is a battle over the soul of South Korean democracy.
At its core, the race pits two irreconcilable visions against each other: Lee Jae-myung’s consolidation of power under a loyalist machine versus Kim Moon-soo’s promise of conservative governance rooted in institutional checks and longstanding alliances.
To many, a Lee victory would represent more than a political shift – it would signal the possible transformation of the republic itself from a pluralistic democracy to a centralized power structure with few internal restraints.
June 3 is not simply about who leads next; it is about whether South Korea doubles down on one-man rule or restores balance to a political system in danger of veering off course.
The choice will define not just the presidency, but the political character of the nation for years to come.
Hanjin Lew, a political commentator specializing in East Asian affairs, is a former international spokesman for South Korean conservative parties.
