Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ruling coalition is likely to win big in Japan’s lower house election on February 8.   

Hopefully, Washington recognizes what it has with Takaichi.

Among major US allies, Japan is the only one that is taking its defense seriously and not cozying up to the Chinese communists.

Since I first went to Japan in 1993, Japan has had 19 prime ministers. Takaichi could be one of the very best – even better than the late Shinzo Abe.

For one thing, she cares about “regular” Japanese, and seems to understand the plight of Japan’s long-suffering citizens – who are fleeced with high taxes and low salaries, seemingly existing to service Japan’s elite class and big business. 

But that’s a domestic issue. 

More important for Washington, Takaichi is one of the very few Japanese prime ministers in the last 30 years to take office with a decent knowledge of national security and what Japan needs to do to defend itself.

She does her homework and has some excellent advisors – and listens to them. 

Takaichi also understands the malevolent nature of the Chinese communist regime and the threat posed to Japan.

In the past, when China objected to something Japan did or didn’t do, it only had to throw a fit and summon up demonstrations outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing or take a Japanese businessmen hostage on “espionage” charges.  Japan would apologize.

But Takaichi has already taken a firm approach toward China following Beijing’s latest tantrum after she reasonably noted Taiwan is important to Japan’s national security when asked about Taiwan in the Diet by a politician with family business ties to China.

Takaichi has not backed down or made conciliatory gestures toward China of the sort that would indicate Japan had done something wrong.

If she wins big, Takaichi will be even less likely to cave to Chinese intimidation.

Beijing deserves credit for increasing Takaichi’s popularity and letting her demonstrate firm leadership so soon after taking office. The Japanese public (far more “anti-China” and pro-defense than is Japan’s political class) has always responded well to strong, well-articulated leadership – on the rare occasions when the people are exposed to it.

Takaichi is already looking after Japan’s interests by improving national defense and economic security, and also bolstering the US-Japan alliance while linking up with other free nations to strengthen overall defense.

What Takaichi is doing is prudent and common sense. It is not confrontational – though to Beijing defending oneself against Chinese pressure is being “confrontational.”

Will China re-engage with Japan?

Maybe eventually. But not soon. Instead, it will keep attacking Takaichi with vile language, trying to stoke regional fears of (imaginary) Japanese “militarism,” and also pressuring Japan via the People’s Liberation Army Navy, Coast Guard, maritime militia and fishing boats constantly intruding in Japan’s maritime territory.

The Chinese communists will also try to split the US-Japan alliance, though likely with little success.

Indeed, Takaichi understands that Japan’s strategic interests depend on a close relationship with America. Like former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, she realizes that, without the United States, Japan cannot adequately defend itself or its interests against Chinese aggression.

Fortunately, Japanese and American geopolitical interests also generally correspond, and the Japanese public broadly supports the US-Japan defense treaty.

Takaichi has plenty to do defense-wise, but she’s doing it.

She will need to find and allocate funds for national defense and, most importantly, address the Japan Self-Defense Forces’ longstanding recruitment shortfalls. Ensuring the Japanese forces can operate jointly among themselves and effectively with US forces is another priority.

Expanding defense production and economic security – especially when it comes to critical minerals, and reducing China-dependent supply chains – are also essential tasks.

These efforts to improve Japan’s defense are all being done in the context of a strategic defense, and with the United States.

Japan lacks the capability – such as manpower, weapons, and hardware – or the desire to threaten its neighbors with aggressive, offensive action.

The US waited a long time for a prime minister who recognizes the threats facing Japan, has the nerve to stand up to China and will genuinely improve defense – beyond white papers and big-ticket hardware purchase.   

Washington should ensure Takaichi gets all the help she needs, and then some. 

Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine officer and US diplomat who lived in Japan for 25 years