Japan’s agriculture minister, Taku Eto, resigned on May 21 just six months into his term, following a public backlash to his joke that he never buys rice because supporters give it to him for free.

Gaffes are by no means uncommon in Japanese politics. Controversial remarks by one former prime minister, Taro Aso, were routinely followed by retractions – and the ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP) even distributed a gaffe-prevention manual to its members in 2019.

But amid a severe rice shortage, which has seen prices surge to 90% higher than they were a year ago, Eto’s quip was seen by the Japanese public as more than just an offhand comment.

Rice has been a significant part of life in Japan for nearly 3,000 years. This deep connection is reflected in the Japanese word gohan, which means “cooked rice” but is often used simply to refer to a meal. Rice has also shaped the foundations of Japanese cuisine and farming culture.

Such is the importance of rice to Japanese people that a spike in prices in 1918 led to a nationwide wave of protest. The so-called rice riots forced then-Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake,to resign.

However, despite the grain’s obvious importance, Japanese government policy in recent decades has been focused on tightly controlling and regulating the production of rice. It has endeavoured to keep prices high, partly to reward farmers – who are an important support base for the LDP.

This means consumers have paid a premium, contributing to a downward trend in rice consumption alongside other factors such as dietary diversification. By 2022, annual rice consumption in Japan had fallen to 51kg per person, less than half of what it was at its 1962 peak. In this context, the public reaction to Eto’s comment was understandable.

Japan’s current prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, initially seemed prepared to weather the storm, advising Eto to retract his “problematic” remarks and remain in his post. But with elections approaching in July and Ishiba’s approval rating sinking to a record low of 21%, his administration was left with little choice and Eto ultimately resigned.

The rice crisis has emerged as one of the defining issues of the upcoming election, which will determine whether Ishiba’s ruling coalition can secure a majority in the upper house of parliament. Having already lost its majority in the lower house in October 2024, the government may be set for another crushing defeat at the polls.

Japan’s rice crisis

A few factors have combined over the past year to cause rice prices to increase unexpectedly. Japan’s hottest September in 125 years resulted in poor harvests, while government warnings that a major earthquake off the country’s Pacific coast could be imminent triggered panic buying. The agriculture ministry also says that a surge in inbound tourism contributed to a sudden rise in rice consumption.

However, the rice crisis is not fundamentally the result of climate volatility or increased demand. It is the product of decades of self-defeating agricultural policy that has prioritized institutional interests over national food security.

Rice production caps, which were introduced in 1971 to control supply and prices, have never been fully dismantled even as domestic consumption has changed and the farming population decreased. This artificial control of output has left the country ill-prepared for demand surges.

Compounding these issues are entrenched protectionist measures designed to shield small-scale rice farmers through high tariffs and rigid distribution systems. These distortions have prioritized institutional stability and political patronage over food security reform, leaving Japan increasingly vulnerable in an era of climate disruption and supply chain instability.

Having struggled with low wages for years, many sectors of Japan’s population are now grappling with inflation. The government has dug into its emergency rice reserves in an attempt to alleviate the problem, but the grain has been slow to reach supermarket shelves. And some farmers, increasingly frustrated by regulations limiting how much rice they can grow, have even organized demonstrations.

Under current conditions, imported rice is becoming an unavoidable fallback. Japan is importing rice from South Korea for the first time in over 25 years, while Japanese tourists are reportedly filling their suitcases with Korean rice – despite deep-seated skepticism toward anything not domestically grown.

Political change looming?

With rice prices soaring and public discontent mounting, this beloved everyday grain is once again at the center of Japanese politics – just as it was more than a century ago during the 1918 rice riots.

Despite the complexities of modern economies, connected to global systems of market exchange, Japanese consumers understand that government policies have played an oversized role in creating the current crisis. It is largely policy that has kept their wages low and failed to rein in inflation.

Consumers are also keenly aware that the LDP’s rice policy has worked to protect its critical agricultural support base, a situation strongly reflected in Eto’s joke.

As the government scrambles to get its house in order and put more affordable rice back on the table, a deeper reflection of the past seems advisable. Historical precedents, such as the 1918 riots, suggest that strong public distrust of a government’s rice policy results in profound political change.

Ming Gao is a research scholar of East Asia studies, Lund University; and Timothy Amos is a senior lecturer in Japanese studies, University of Sydney.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.