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Prime Minister Keir Starmer has offered significant concessions on his welfare reforms in a bid to avoid a major backbench Labour rebellion.
Liz Kendall, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, confirmed in a letter to Labour MPs in the early hours of Friday morning that the government had agreed to make two major changes to the welfare bill ahead of a House of Commons vote on Tuesday.
“We have listened to colleagues who support the principle of reform but are worried about the impact of the pace of change on those already supported by the system,” the letter said.
Early on Thursday night, PoliticsHome revealed details of the major concession on Personal Independence Payments.
Under the original plans, the government was set to make it harder for people to qualify for this support by changing the assessment criteria.
However, Kendall this morning confirmed that all existing PIP recipients will be protected from the new rules, and that changes will affect only new applicants.
Kendall also confirmed in her letter to Labour MPs that all current recipients of the health element of Universal Credit, as well as new applicants deemed as fulfilling the severe conditions criteria, will have their incomes protected in real terms.
“Our reform principles remain; to target funding for those most in need and make sure the system is sustainable for the future to support generations to come. We believe those who can work, should, and those who cannot, should be protected,” she wrote.
Government whips are spending Friday calling around to persuade Labour rebels who last week backed a reasoned amendment to the welfare bill to remove their signatures and support the revised plans.
Over 130 Labour MPs had signed the amendment, threatening Starmer with the very real prospect of having his huge House of Commons majority overturned by his own MPs.
Senior Labour MP Meg Hillier, who chairs the Treasury committee, was one of the amendment’s organisers and has been heavily involved in negotiations with ministers over concessions.
She suggested this morning that she was prepared to vote for the new plans, telling Sky News that the package agreed with the government was “good” and represented a “big change”.
One 2024 intake MP said that they were now persuaded, following a call with a whip: “We’re all one big happy family again, and I’ll be supporting the bill.”
Upon learning about the PIP concession from PoliticsHome last night, a Labour MP who hadn’t signed the amendment said the rebellion was “dead” as a result.
Downing Street will be confident that it has done enough to get the legislation through the House of Commons on Tuesday.
However, there is likely to be a group of MPs on the left and soft left of the party – including members of the new intake – that will remain opposed to plans for welfare cuts.
Rachael Maskell, the MP for York Central, confirmed to PoliticsHome on Friday that she would vote against the legislation despite the government’s offer.
Another rebel agreed, saying “from what I’ve heard, it’s not enough for me”.
“Nothing is concrete yet. Everything you’re hearing is speculation until we get it in writing which will be Monday pm at the earliest,” they told PoliticsHome, adding of Kendall’s letter to MPs setting out concessions: “A letter isn’t a parliamentary document. Anyone can send a letter.”
The MP also suggested the “two-tier” approach to applying the welfare reforms could be open to legal challenge, saying: “The suggested concessions have made things even less clear and looks like it would create a two-tier system, which may not be legal.”
A number of other rebel MPs have told PoliticsHome they remain undecided how they will vote, voicing concern about a lack of clarity on the details of the changes proposed by government.
One MP from the 2024 intake described the situation as “very confusing because it doesn’t address everything”, and estimated there were a “good 40 to 50 still unhappy and probably likely to abstain or even vote against” on Tuesday.
Another MP elected last year said that a lot would “depend on what the promise to work with disabilities groups on the redesign of PIP actually means”.
“I think that’s enough to get it through Second Reading, but then I’ll need to see the detail of what the government actually tables as amendments during the Committee Stage, which is going to be ridiculously short coming as it is the following week,” they said.
The government plans to hold the Committee, Report and Third Reading stages of the welfare bill in the space of one day in the week following Tuesday’s Second Reading, leading to accusations by some MPs of a ‘rip the plaster off’ approach.
Additional reporting by Matilda Martin and Sienna Rodgers
