(Alamy)

6 min read2 hr

“It’s incredibly lazy to say all Muslim voters are left-wing,” said one Labour MP. “Are you telling me that these voters look at Zack Polanski and like his drugs policy?”

The Labour Party has controlled Gorton and Denton for well over a century.

At the 2024 general election, it was one of 70 constituencies that Keir Starmer’s party won with an absolute majority, securing over 50 per cent of the vote share. Defeat in this Greater Manchester seat later this month would represent a major symbolic blow to the Prime Minister as he seeks to put his shaky leadership on firmer footing.

A minister this week told PoliticsHome that the by-election would be the next “trigger point”.

Despite Labour’s position in Gorton and Denton seeming unassailable just 18 months ago, defeat at the end of February is seen as a very real prospect, with both the Greens and Reform UK confident of victory. 

Green candidate Hannah Spencer, a plumber and councillor for nearby Hale, is the bookies’ favourite to succeed Andrew Gwynne, who resigned as the seat’s Labour MP on health grounds. “It’s really powerful to see so many people turn around and say, forget it, I’m not [voting Labour] anymore,” she told PoliticsHome.

“Labour is totally irrelevant in this constituency at this point,” Green Party leader Zack Polanski told PoliticsHome during a visit to the Greater Manchester contest.

Labour strongly rejects the suggestion that the by-election is a contest between the Greens and Nigel Farage’s Reform, with party sources in the area this week telling PoliticsHome they are increasingly confident of keeping hold of the seat. While the party and the Prime Minister poll poorly nationally, Labour possesses significant institutional knowledge of the seat, having controlled it for over 100 years, and is seen as having a strong ground campaign.

Labour currently holds 25 of the 27 MPs in the Greater Manchester region, and more than 600 councillors across the city. Andy Burnham, the popular local Labour mayor, is a regular campaigner and features prominently on literature alongside Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia, despite being blocked by Labour officials as the party’s candidate. Mancunian rock band Inspiral Carpets performed for Labour activists during PoliticsHome‘s visit to the constituency last weekend.

Labour and the Greens are engaged in a communications battle to persuade voters in Gorton and Denton that they are the best way of stopping Reform. 

How the progressive vote splits on the day will be determined to a significant degree by the seat’s Muslim residents, who make up over 30 per cent of the constituency.

Amongst Pakistani and Bangladeshi voters – who, according to the most recent data, are the predominant Muslim group in Gorton and Denton – the Greens outperform Labour in nationwide polling. A YouGov survey conducted in October found that more than half of this cohort (58 per cent) felt positive about the Greens, compared with 31 per cent who felt positive about Labour.

The decision by both George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain and the Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana-fronted Your Party not to stand means there is no pro-Gaza voice to the left of the Greens. According to Ben Walker, co-founder of Britain Elects, this suggests there will be a few thousand votes that will “tack themselves on to the Green column”.

The Muslim Vote, an influential organisation which urges people to vote on religious lines, endorsed the Greens early in the campaign. The organisation, set up in late 2023, endorsed the four independent candidates who were elected at the 2024 general election on campaigns centred on the war in Gaza. They were Shockat Adam, Adnan Hussain, Ayoub Khan and Iqbal Mohammed.

However, the Greens face challenges in securing Muslim voters.

One reason for Labour optimism heading into the by-election is a belief that the area’s older voters, particularly older Muslim voters, remain loyal to the party. 

Labour peer Lord Wajid Khan, who has been closely involved in the review into Islamophobia, has been helping the party’s dialogue with ethnic minorities groups in the constituency.

There is also a belief among Labour figures that Gaza as an issue is not as salient as it was earlier in the conflict. Labour candidate Stogia, a local councillor, told PoliticsHome she hosted an event for several dozen Muslim women in February and Gaza was not brought up once. She also claimed that the local Labour Party had experienced less of a backlash than elsewhere in the country, as Manchester City council was one of the first authorities to call for a ceasefire after the October 2023 attacks.

Middle East minister Hamish Falconer, who is regarded as a well-respected figure within the pro-Palestine wing of the party, has been to Gorton and Denton to campaign.

There is also a logistical challenge posed by the by-election falling during Ramadan, shortening the window for when Muslim voters can go to the polling station.

“A lot of voters will have a small window on which they can get out to vote, which is a two-hour window or a two-and-a-half-hour window,” the Muslim Vote’s Abubakr Nanabawa told PoliticsHome. “And it’s very important that the Green Party have a strategy to mobilise in those two and a half hours.”

The organisation is urging community leaders to use WhatsApp chats and channels to persuade friends and family members to get out the vote on by-election day. 

Reform, whose hopes of victory in Gorton and Denton hinge largely on Labour and the Greens dividing the left-wing vote, has criticised what they describe as sectarian voting.

“We should not be having by-elections on issues which are unfolding in other parts of the world,” the party’s candidate Matt Goodwin told PoliticsHome. “National elections should be about the national economy. What we’ve seen in recent years is the Greens deliberately attempting to divide communities along lines of Gaza.”

“I have warned about [sectarian voting] for a few years,” added Reform leader Farage. “The Greens are a substitute sectarian candidate in Gorton.”

Polanski has welcomed the Muslim Vote endorsement, but stressed in an interview with PoliticsHome that voters should be treated as individuals.

“I think any organisation that wants to back the Green Party because they align with our values is something that I applaud and welcome,” he told PoliticsHome.

“I think we also know that whether they’re religious groups or any demographic groups, people don’t necessarily all vote the same way, and I think it’s important that we always treat people as individuals.”