A prolonged surge in natural gas prices triggered by the ongoing war in the Middle East risks denting European growth and hitting some Asian economies hard, analysts have warned.
Global gas prices have soared this week amid fears of a lengthy disruption to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route running between Oman and Iran that handles about one-fifth of global LNG trade — as the Iran conflict escalates.
Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures, Europe’s benchmark gas contract, rose 35% on Tuesday to more than 60 euros ($69.64) per megawatt-hour. On the week, prices are around 76% higher.
The Northeast Asia LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea-Marker (JKM), which captures deliveries to Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan, reached a one-year high, and was last seen around 43 euros ($49.83) per MWh. U.K. natural gas was also sharply higher.
Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG producers, halted production on Monday following Iranian drone strikes at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. Goldman Sachs estimated the pause will reduce near-term global LNG supply by about 19%.
A senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard official later said the country had closed the Strait of Hormuz to all ships, and warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the channel would be attacked. The U.S., however, said the route remained open, according to a Fox News report.
Supply squeeze
Europe and much of Asia are more heavily exposed to potential gas price shocks than the U.S., which benefits from both domestic shale and LNG production.
Around 25% of Europe’s total gas supply is LNG, according to Chris Wheaton, oil and gas analyst at Stifel. With roughly 20% of global LNG production sitting behind the Strait, a prolonged disruption could trigger a supply squeeze comparable to the 2022 shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he said in a note.
“We are much more concerned about European gas prices than we are about oil prices,” Wheaton said.
Shares of Norwegian energy giant Equinor, one of Europe’s largest natural gas suppliers, hit a 52-week high on Tuesday, adding more than 2%, after closing the previous session up more than 8%.
Equinor.
Goldman Sachs, in a note published Monday, warned that a monthlong halt to flows through Hormuz risks driving TTF and JKM prices toward 74 euros ($85.80) per MWh. This was the level that “triggered large natural gas demand responses” during the 2022 European energy crisis.
European gas prices ultimately peaked at 345 euros ($400.02) per MWh in August 2022 as Russia weaponized its natural gas exports in response to EU sanctions, cutting supply, which pushed up domestic energy bills and sparked a cost-of-living crisis across the continent.
In a separate note later Monday, Goldman raised its April TTF forecast to 55 euros ($63.75) per MWh from 36 euros ($41.73) per megawatt-hour, with its average second-quarter forecast now at 45 euros ($52.16) per MWh.
‘Negative implications’
Patrick O’Donnell, chief investment strategist at Omnis Investments, said LNG is now a key area of concern for Europe’s wider economy. “That may have more negative implications for the European economy and the reindustrialization that the market has been hoping that we get to see,” O’Donnell told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Sven Jari Stehn noted that “the effects of higher energy prices on GDP tend to be negative for most countries, except for Norway which produces and exports oil.”
Goldman Sachs estimated that a sustained 10% rise in energy prices over four quarters would cut 0.2% off GDP in both the U.K. and the euro area. Switzerland, which relies more on nuclear and renewables, would be flat, while Norway — an oil exporter — would see a 0.1% boost.
In contrast, Goldman analysts see “limited upside risk” to U.S. natural gas prices.
Asian importers also affected
Asia is also vulnerable to supply disruption.
Invesco estimates that almost 58% of India’s LNG imports come from the Middle East, accounting for nearly 2% of its primary energy consumption. Around 27% of Singapore’s LNG imports come from the region, making up 2.2% of primary energy use.
Other Asia-Pacific nations source more than 37% of their LNG from the Middle East, Invesco said, representing almost 3% of primary energy consumption, while 26.6% of China’s LNG imports originate there.
Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at BBH, said countries heavily reliant on imported oil and gas with limited fiscal space — including Japan, India, South Africa, Turkey, Hungary and Malaysia — were the most vulnerable to energy disruption shocks, while Norway, Canada and Mexico are among the least exposed.
“A protracted conflict that leads to further disruption in energy production and shipping raises the risk of stagflation and could add to fiscal strains,” Haddad said in a note.
