Indonesia’s fighter jet dilemma pits cost, capability, and geopolitical leverage as it weighs China’s now-battle-tested J-10s against pricier Western rivals.
This month, Reuters reported that Indonesia is evaluating the potential acquisition of China’s J-10 fighter jets, weighing their affordability and advanced capabilities against other options, including the US-made F-15EX.
Deputy Defense Minister Donny Ermawan Taufanto confirmed that discussions are ongoing with China, which has also reportedly pitched naval vessels and armaments. Indonesia’s evaluation considers system compatibility, after-sales support and pricing.
The deliberations follow Indonesia’s broader military modernization push, which saw the 2022 purchase of 42 French Rafale jets worth US$8.1 billion. Six Rafales are expected to be delivered next year.
While Indonesia’s interest in the J-10 predates recent India-Pakistan air skirmishes, Pakistan’s use of J-10s to down at least one Indian-flown Rafale has added a new dimension to Jakarta’s evaluation.
Meanwhile, Indonesia is still mulling its planned F-15EX purchase, with questions rising around the $8 billion price tag for 24 jets. France remains a contender, with President Emmanuel Macron’s recent visit to Indonesia resulting in a preliminary defense pact that could lead to further Rafale acquisitions.
Taufanto emphasized Indonesia’s budget constraints and strategic options, noting ongoing assessments of multiple offers.
Highlighting the J-10’s capabilities, Justin Bronk notes in an October 2020 report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) that the J-10 is China’s response to the US F-16 and Swedish Gripen, offering comparable capabilities at a significantly lower acquisition cost.
“Think of the J-10C as roughly equivalent to a late-model F-16, but with some features, like its long-range missile suite, that could give it the edge in certain scenarios,” says David Jordan, a senior lecturer in defense studies at King’s College London, in a May 2025 Business Insider article.
“You may well see a very viable competitor to Western products entering contests for the purchase of new fighter aircraft,” says Jordan.
However, no matter how capable the J-10 may be on paper, Indonesia’s chronic procurement dysfunction, underfunding, weak institutional support and fragmented planning raise serious questions about its ability to field any advanced fighter effectively.
“Indonesia’s air force modernization and fleet recapitalization has been marred with multiple challenges, including lack of funding, lack of government commitment, as well as inefficient and highly personalized acquisition policy,” says Olli Suorsa in a March 2021 S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) report.
For Indonesia’s cash-strapped air force, which by all accounts is in serious need of modernization, the J-10 presents a compelling case. However, Indonesia may be proceeding with caution before making its move.
Dave Laksono, a senior member of Indonesia’s House of Representatives, said that “unverified claims in conflict zones cannot be used as the sole basis for assessing the effectiveness or failure of a particular weapons system,” according to a May 2025 Defense Security Asia report.
“Even the most advanced jets, such as the F-16, F/A-18, and F-22, have experienced incidents of being shot down or crashed due to certain tactical conditions,” says Laksono.
Further, Alfin Bansundoro notes in a June 2024 East Asia Forum article that while Indonesia has previously purchased Chinese weapons, such as CH-4B drones, C-705 and C-802 anti-ship missiles, and TD-2000B self-propelled air defense systems, bilateral territorial disputes over the Natuna Islands cast doubt on future purchases from China.
Bansundoro points out that China has sold downgraded weapons to Indonesia several times, mentioning that the former sold the export version of the C-802, known as the YJ-83, which has a reduced range.
In addition, he says Indonesia runs the risk of jeopardizing purchases from Western partners if it pushes through with acquiring Chinese weapons, emphasizing the risk of Western economic weaponization.
However, Evan Laksmana warns in a May 2024 article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) that without a well-institutionalized defense partnership, Indonesia’s long-term relationship with China will lack strategic heft and balance.
Beyond military cooperation, such arms deals often bleed into economic diplomacy. Fighter jets can act as entry points for deeper bilateral entanglements, requiring long-term cooperation in training, maintenance and logistics.
Jake Rinaldi argues in a November 2024 article for the US Army War College that China often pairs arms sales with economic perks, such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which Indonesia is a member.
In the Indonesian context, Rinaldi notes that China’s arms sales may aim to establish relationships with senior civilian and military leaders, thereby expanding diplomatic and strategic influence.
Pointing out the quid pro quo between China and Indonesia, Oene Marseille and other writers mention in a November 2024 article for CDR Essential Intelligence that China has financed major projects, including the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail, in exchange for strengthened economic ties.
In return, Marseille and others state that Indonesia provides China with access to crucial resources, particularly nickel, for electric vehicle production.
However, they note that while Indonesia benefits from economic modernization, China leverages these projects to expand its influence in Southeast Asia, intertwining trade with strategic leverage, while Indonesia cautiously balances partnerships.
Although Indonesia has planned to purchase F-15EX jets from the US, a decision to purchase them, like a potential acquisition of China’s J-10s, may be driven more by political and economic considerations than by Indonesia’s actual defense requirements.
An April 2023 D-Insights article reports that Indonesia’s plan to purchase F-15EX jets from the US is likely to fail due to cost, as the aircraft are too expensive for the country’s limited defense budget.
Similar budget issues have strained Indonesia’s past cooperation with South Korea on next-generation fighter projects, including delayed payments and alleged data leaks, as reported by the Korean JoongAng Daily in May 2025.
D-Insights posits that Indonesia may have raised the possibility of F-15EX purchases to keep good relations with the US, ultimately making it a political gesture more than anything else.
Even if driven by politics, Indonesia may still attempt to extract tangible benefits from potential F-15EX purchases. Aryojati Ardipandanto argues in an April 2025 article for Info Singkat that Indonesia could use F-15EX purchases to negotiate the 32% “reciprocal” tariffs Donald Trump imposed on the country in April and has since paused.
Ardipandanto says Indonesia needs the F-15EX as part of its defense diplomacy to blunt the effects of US tariffs on its micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), considering the possibility of layoffs in Indonesian companies that export to the US.
Whichever jet Indonesia chooses, the decision will have far-reaching consequences, shaping its defense posture, great power alignments and the price it pays for sovereignty.
