India has lost its top fighter jet, the Rafale EH. Three Rafale jets were shot down. In addition, at least one Sukhoi and one MIG plus a large Israel reconnaissance drone were destroyed by Pakistan’s air force.
Until the latest air combat, India had acquired 34 Rafale jet fighters. These are multimission platforms suitable for all combat aviation missions: air superiority and air defense, close air support, in-depth strikes, reconnaissance, anti-ship strikes and nuclear deterrence.
In the latest confrontation, which apparently lasted around an hour, the Rafales were carrying SCALP cruise missiles, which in the UK are known as Storm Shadow. These missiles have been used extensively in Ukraine.
The Rafales also had MICA (missile d’interception, de combat et d’auto-défense) air-to-air missiles. At least one of these missiles was found near the crash site of the first Rafale that was downed. That Rafale had a tail designation of BS-001, meaning it was the first Rafale delivered to the Indian air force. BS means single seat.
The combat that took place was at a distance, not a classical close-encounter dogfight. Pakistan was operating over Pakistani air space when its J-10 jet (Chinese but co-produced in Pakistan) launched Chinese PL-15 air to air missiles. Some parts of a PL-15 missile have been recovered on Indian territory, including part of its AESA (active electronically scanned array) radar.
The PL-15 is China’s answer to the US AIM-120D AMRAAM (advanced medium-range air-to-air missile) which is an all-weather, beyond-visual-range missile. It has a range of 200 to 300 km (124 to 186 miles), although the export version is 145 km (90 miles). It is assumed Pakistan has the export model. The PL-15 is pretty fast. Once launched, its speed is around Mach-5 (6,173 kph or 3,836 mph).
By way of contrast, the French MICA air to air missile has a significantly shorter range, around 60 to 80 km (37 to 50 miles). Thus the Chinese PL-15 as a stand-off weapon has a significant advantage. That seems to have paid off in the recent encounter.
The US Air Force has put most of its bets on two capabilities:
- stealth for platforms such as the F-22 and F-35, and
- long-range interdiction with air-to-air missiles in warfare described as “beyond visual range.”
Consequently, fighters such as the F-35 have traded off maneuverability to emphasize stealth, and have long-range air-to-air missiles to support BVR encounters.
The Rafale is not a stealth platform and, while in many ways technologically advanced, it is not as BVR capable as Chinese-designed jets and air-to-air missiles. Furthermore, even the AMRAAM seems to fall short of the mark in any competition, meaning that the AMRAAM will need to be replaced with a longer-range and faster air-to-air missile.
Russia also has a BVR air-to-air missile, the R-77 which is being upgraded. A new version, R-77M, designed for Russia’s new Su-57 fighter, has a dual pulse motor (like China’s PL-15) and AESA radar. Quite possibly it incorporates Chinese technology. Russia also appears to have a scramjet-powered version of the R-77. Nothing is known of the range of either missile, although the earlier R-77 was inferior in range to AMRAAM.
What happened to India in the latest firefight is bad news for NATO, which appears to be falling behind technologically – and it is a warning to the United States to speed up development of an AMRAAM replacement.
While the US has a new replacement for AMRAAM, designated as the AIM-260 JATM (joint advanced tactical missile), as of now it is in low-rate production and has not achieved initial operational capability. Supposedly, it has a range of 200 km (124 miles), putting it at the low end compared to the PL-15.
There is still a lot more to be learned about the latest encounter between the Pakistani and Indian air forces. There may be more bad news.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.
