Leeds United have started the 2025/26 season better than people may have expected, given the hoodoo surrounding newly promoted sides in recent years.
Their first season back in the top flight, it was predicted that Leeds would go straight back down. ESPN’s Bill Connelly was one of those who predicted them to come 18th, despite explaining that they are “well-suited” to survive the drop.
There is still a lot of football to be played, with 31 games to go this season but Leeds find themselves on eight points, four clear of the drop. It has been a positive start to the campaign for Daniel Farke’s side.
One area they would surely want to improve is how clinical they are in front of goal.
Why Leeds are struggling in the final third
To win football matches, you need to be able to put the ball in the back of the net. That is something that Leeds were good at under Farke last season, bagging 95 times, more than any other Championship team.
It was always going to be tough to replicate in the top flight, but the West Yorkshire outfit have perhaps left a little to be desired in front of goal.
As per Understat, they have found the back of the net seven times this season, but have underachieved on their expected goals tally.
Farke’s side have notched up a total of 8.03 xG so far, and whilst it is not a huge difference, they will be hoping that doesn’t increase as the season goes on. Indeed, he will want more from his strikers, in particular Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Leeds’ summer signing has scored once for his new club. The 28-year-old bagged against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the 3-1 win at Molineux, but has failed to bag in any of his other four appearances.
After their last game against Tottenham Hotspur, Yorkshire Evening Post journalist Graham Smyth said his “finishing was missing again.”
So, it might be the case that Farke decides to shake things up ahead of their next game against Burnley on Saturday.
Leeds’ Calvert-Lewin alternative
Of course, former Everton number nine Calvert-Lewin was not the only centre-forward who moved to Elland Road this summer. They also added Lukas Nmecha to their squad on a free, with the two strikers joining existing forward Joel Piroe in the ranks.
However, Farke might choose to shuffle the pack around and start Noah Okafor up front. The “versatile” forward, as football scout Jacek Kulig called him, has played as a left-winger to great success this term, but is a more than capable striker.
Despite being just six games into his Leeds career, the Switzerland international has already bagged twice, at an average of a goal every 154 Premier League minutes.
Just like Calvert-Lewin, he netted at Molineux and also got Leeds’ goal in their 2-1 home loss to Spurs last time out.
Playing as a number nine would not be a strange concept to the former AC Milan star. Okafor has played that role a great deal in his career, with Transfermarkt showcasing that he’s featured as a centre-forward on 79 different occasions, scoring 26 goals and assisting 16.
It is interesting to compare Okafor and Calvert-Lewin’s key underlying numbers from this season. The Swiss star comes out on top in several metrics, including the average number of goals per shot on target.
The Leeds number 19 averages one per 90 minutes, with the former Everton striker just 0.14, showing far better efficiency in Okafor’s favour.
Okafor vs Calvert-Lewin |
||
---|---|---|
Stat (per 90) |
Okafor |
DCL |
Goals |
0.59 |
0.25 |
Goals per shot on target |
1 |
0.14 |
Expected goals |
0.35xG |
0.35xG |
Goals minus expected goals |
0.24 |
-0.10 |
Goal-creating actions |
0.3 |
0.25 |
Stats from FBref |
There is a strong case to be made for Okafor starting at Leeds’ number nine during their next game. He’s got a good goal record and strong underlying numbers from the left wing this season, so Farke might well decide to test him out up front.
It would be a bold call, but one that could really pay dividends for the Whites as they look to become more efficient in front of goal.