Ukraine may forfeit access to more than $115 billion in international aid due to stalled reforms and missed commitments under IMF and EU programs, according to a new report from the RRR4U think tank consortium.

Despite the IMF approving a new support program in late 2025, Ukraine is showing what analysts called a “sharply negative trend” in meeting its obligations — putting vital financing at risk.

IMF program ‘on hold’ as benchmarks slip

The IMF’s $8.2 billion package remains effectively frozen, the experts said, due to Ukraine’s failure to meet several agreed “prior actions” — reforms that were to be completed before funds are released. The delays also threaten €90 billion in loans from the EU under the Ukraine Facility plan.

Without those funds, Ukraine may be unable to cover core budget needs, including defense spending. RRR4U urged the government and parliament to act quickly.

“Mobilizing domestic revenue isn’t just an IMF requirement — it’s a matter of survival,” said Maria Repko, deputy director of the Center for Economic Strategy. “We’re spending half as much on defense as Russia, and U.S. grants have stopped. These changes are what society must accept internally if we want to defend our state.”

Repko stressed that the IMF program is not just important on its own — it anchors the EU’s €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan and unlocks funding from other international donors. In total, around $115 billion in aid depends on its success.

The IMF is expected to consider a new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Ukraine in February. But approval, said IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack, will depend entirely on Kyiv completing its list of prior actions.

Source: NV.

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