Since March 2022, the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), together with the German Economic Team (GET), has been preparing monthly reviews of Ukraine’s economy during a full-scale war.  All notes can be found under the link.

Key changes in the Ukrainian economy in May:

• Monetary, FX, and banking sectors: Inflation hits 15.1%, key policy rate steady at 15.5%. Ukraine’s strong reserves and a weakening dollar have reignited debate over shifting to the euro as a base currency, though such a move remains a longer-term prospect due to current reserve composition and NBU practices.
• Fiscal sector: The state budget received UAH 135 bn of taxes in April, up 24% y-o-y. Domestic VAT revenue growth outpaces imports VAT in 2025 so far and excises now bring almost every fifth hryvnia. War-related expenditures funded from the state’s own resources are steadily increasing since Jan 2025.
• Sectoral analysis: Ukraine became a net electricity exporter in late April. The transition to the European voltage standard is expected to take place on 1 July. Pig iron production hits wartime high in April. Growth in steel and rolled steel output helped match 2024 levels in 4m2025. Sunflower oil — the main export commodity in 4m2025. Top 3 goods account for over 70% of agri exports, with raising share of soybeans.
• Special topic: IT sector share in Ukraine’s economy estimated at 3-4%. Only 2 out of 10 largest companies increased their staff in 2H2024. IT exports rebounds after hitting 4-year low in January. IT share in services export reached 42% for the first time since June 2023

See our report below for further details.

Invited speakers:

• Viktor Shalnev, CEO of NIХ.
• Garry Poluschkin, Project Manager GET in Ukraine.
• Iryna Ippolitova, analyst at DOU.
• Oleksandr Medovyi, CEO of AltexSoft LLC, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Kharkiv IT Cluster.

Moderator: Taras Mishchenko, Editor-in-Chief of Mezha.Media.

Media partner — Mezha.Media