US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke for the first time this year on Monday in a conversation that touched upon the Iran war, the content of which Putin’s senior aide Yury Ushakov described as “very substantive” and “useful”, along with other subjects such as the global energy market, Ukraine and Venezuela.
Earlier that day, Putin held a meeting on the global energy market in which he repeated last week’s proposal to cut off exports to the EU before the EU’s deadline on cutting off Russian imports – but with a catch.
“If European companies, European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation devoid of political considerations, free from political considerations – we can accommodate them, we have never turned them down,” Putin said.
Russia’s export reorientation toward the Asian market, already a work in progress over the past four years since the Ukraine war, would thus only remain partial as long as the EU rescinds its sanctions, as Putin has implied that he wants.
That might not be enough since the EU now needs Russian resources more than Russia needs its business, so he might also require that they coerce Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into accepting some of his demands for peace.
Trump might be on board, considering that he said shortly after his call with Putin that “we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out. Then, who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on.”
He also said that Putin “wants to be helpful” on ending the Iran conflict, now in its second week, and did not rule out talking with Iran despite Trump’s demand for its “unconditional surrender,” which Iran has refused.
This came amid a report that some of Trump’s advisors now urge him to find an Iran exit ramp as oil prices surge and most American voters remain opposed to the war, according to opinion polls.
Putin also described in detail during his meeting how “the entire international economic relations system” is poised for disruption if the Iran war does not soon end.
Of Trump’s stated goals at the onset of the conflict, only demilitarization has possibly been achieved, and only to a large degree rather than entirely. Regime change has not happened since the Islamic Republic’s permanent military, intelligence and administrative pillars remain intact, though heavily damaged.
Significantly, Iran still possesses its highly enriched uranium, which could be used to make a nuclear weapon. The US is reportedly considering seizing it, but the operation to do so would be huge and could prove very costly in many ways.
This is where Putin could bail out Trump before the Iran war becomes an imbroglio. In exchange for Trump removing US sanctions on Russian energy, ordering the EU to follow and resume imports at scale, and both jointly coercing Zelensky into accepting some of Putin’s demands for peace, Putin could have Russia take custody of Iran’s highly enriched uranium – with Iran’s assent – in exchange for a cessation of hostilities that would avert Iran’s total destruction. If Israel rejects peace, the US can simply let it fight on its own.
Both major conflicts could therefore soon end in a way that enables the entire international economic relations system to recover by the US midterms, returning Russian and Gulf energy to the global market through this arrangement.
Trump could also resume reliance on diplomatic means to obtain control over a much weaker Iran’s enormous energy resources – to later leverage against China – as is likely Trump’s unstated war goal. It’s one of many reasons Trump could seriously consider Putin’s speculative peace plan.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished here with editing for clarity, fluency and updates on Trump’s response on Friday. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
