MANILA – Vice President Sara Duterte’s closely watched impeachment trial in the Philippine Senate has been delayed, with political allies closing ranks to protect the popular daughter of the country’s former president, Rodrigo Duterte, now detained in the Hague for thousands of deaths in his drug war.

Sara Duterte became the first Philippine vice president ever to be impeached in February, in what she has dismissed as “political persecution” by the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, once a staunch ally and her running mate in 2022.

She is accused of violating the constitution, corruption, alleged misuse of more than 10 million dollars in public funds and – most damning of all – of plotting to assassinate Marcos and his wife.

Weeks later, her father was arrested and flown to the Hague to face trial for “crimes against humanity” at the International Criminal Court, in a surprise move orchestrated by Marcos officials that added salt to already deep political wounds.

Styling herself as the leader of a new opposition against Marcos, Sara Duterte clawed back in May with candidates she backed in the midterm polls winning seats in the Senate – the very body that, under the constitution, should transform itself into a court to subject her to trial.

This includes the president’s own sister, Imee Marcos, and her father’s former aides Ronald dela Rosa, Christopher Go and Robinhood Padilla.

Dela Rosa was the chief of police who launched Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody drug war from 2016-2022 and is reputed to be among other Filipino officials the ICC wants in its custody.

Padilla, an ex-convict, has publicly stated his allegiance to the Duterte family, raising questions about the supposed impartiality of the impeachment court to begin with.

As the Senate impeachment court opened to hear the case last week, dela Rosa argued that the complaint was “constitutionally-infirm.” The Senate then voted to return it to the House of Representatives last week. It is now clear that the impeachment trial will now have to be tackled by the next Congress, which will convene in July.

In his argument before his peers, dela Rosa questioned the soundness of the case against Vice President Duterte and argued that it was rushed by the House, whose Speaker is a cousin of Marcos, while his son is also a senior member. He branded the cases “constitutionally infirm.”

Impeachment, he said, can serve as a “weapon against anyone who does not agree with the interests of political enemies.” “This is a fire that can raze not just one house but an entire community,” he said in an emotional speech on the Senate floor that was beamed live on television.

The House has placed the Senate “in a tight and impaired position” because any action it would take regarding the articles of impeachment will be questioned by the public, dela Rosa stressed.

“An acquittal, conviction, or even the propriety of proceeding with trial will be hounded not only by legal or constitutional questions but by accusations of extreme bias, partiality, and lack of sufficient deliberation,” dela Rosa stressed, likening the complaint to a house that is not well-built whose “cracks and holes have begun to show.”

All eyes on 2028

If Sara Duterte survives impeachment, it would catapult her to the driver’s seat in the 2028 presidential polls.

She has not yet publicly stated her stand, but her actions and the wider public opinion show that she is priming for a run. There is currently no strong contender emerging, and the constitution restricts Marcos to a single six-year term.

Filipino political and security analyst Lucio Pitlo, who has been closely watching domestic affairs and how they relate to foreign policy, said that if the results of the May elections are a gauge, Sara Duterte has placed her bets well.

“The results of the mid-term polls .. shows the Dutertes remain a political force,” Pitlo told Asia Times.

The Dutertes regained political control of southern Davao city, with ex-president Rodrigo winning as mayor, while two sons winning as vice mayor and congressman.

It is, however, unclear how Duterte, in jail in the Netherlands, will carry out his mandate, but his victory indicates that their clout has not diminished, at least regionally.

“Delays and bickering over her impeachment also work in her favor,” he said. “If VP Sara weathers the impeachment debacle, especially if she (is) acquitted, she would be a strong contender in the 2028 presidential election.”

If Vice President Duterte is convicted and removed from office, she would also be disqualified from running for public office in the future, which means, essentially ending her presidential ambition. However, if she does win, it will likely increase her political stock, observers say.

For Marcos, on the other hand, it would give him a chance to select Vice President Duterte’s replacement if she is convicted as outlined in the constitution’s succession rule. He may nominate from the Senate or the House of Representatives, where he has several clear and prominent allies.

Ex-senator and chief Duterte critic Leila de Lima, who was jailed on trumped-up accusations by the Duterte regime that she profited from the illegal drug trade, said the Senate’s decision to remand the impeachment complaint to the House showed the real political motivations of Sara Duterte’s allies.

The senators ignored the “constitution at no cost to themselves and without any accountability.”

“I am not so optimistic that the trial will proceed promptly as envisioned by the Constitution after the wanton abuse of the process has been normalized and became acceptable,” de Lima told Asia Times.

“There is no reason not to follow the Constitution other than for political self-interest because the directive of the Constitution is clear,” said de Lima, a former secretary of justice who won election as a member of the House of Representatives in May and is likely to be one of the prosecutors in the impeachment trial.

She blamed Senate President Chiz Escudero for stalling in convening the upper chamber as an impeachment court. This, de Lima said, empowered the other members–only five senators voted to proceed with the trial–to “ignore the constitution at no cost to themselves and without any accountability.”

Jason Gutierrez was head of Philippine news at BenarNews, an online news service affiliated with Radio Free Asia (RFA), a Washington-based news organization that covered many under-reported countries in the region. A veteran foreign correspondent, he has also worked with The New York Times and Agence France-Presse (AFP).