All the signals point to a desperate Iran wanting a ceasefire and restart of negotiations with the United States. The Wall Street Journal and others report that the Iranians have signaled Israel asking for a deescalation of the attacks.
President Trump may like this because he sees himself as a great negotiator. But he had better be careful here, because his original proposed deal is too vague and doesn’t cut it as a solution to Iran’s nuclear program and overall regional threat to Israel and its Arab neighbors.
While the diplomatic feelers are filling the air, there are other reports that regime muckety mucks are leaving Iran on a secret airlift, maybe heading to Moscow but no one really knows.
There is, as yet, no sign that Israel intends to slow its attacks which are, in part, now focusing on government institutions and regime leaders (other than Ayatollah Khameini who is, allegedly, off limits).
Washington is building up its forces in the Middle East and is now sending the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier task force from the South China Sea heading “in the direction” of the Middle East, where it would join the USS Carl Vinson carrier task force already on station.
Other reports say that the US has sent a large number of aerial refueling tankers across the Atlantic, but without an as yet known destination. US warships have helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles and drones. The UK also announced it is deploying Royal Air Force jet fighters to the Middle East.
It is not clear whether negotiations with Iran will restart. Should that happen, the original US parameters for a deal would not solve the bigger problem that must be resolved if the war is going to end.
Obviously the first priority is to end Iran’s nuclear program. But what does that mean? Israel is unlikely to agree to inspection of Iranian nuclear sites as an adequate or reliable way to assure Iran does not resume its nuclear weapons programs.
The Trump administration set down a red line saying “no more uranium enrichment,” but has not clarified how that can be achieved.
Relying on IAEA inspections is a formula that has proven a leaky vessel not only in Iran, but elsewhere. IAEA never saw the North Korean-Iranian-Syrian attempt to build a secret nuclear fuel reactor modeled on the North Korean Yongbyon reactor. Israel wiped it off the map. Nor did the IAEA ever grasp Iraq’s nuclear bomb effort under Saddam Hussein.
The IAEA so-called inspections in Iran don’t include the massive Fordow complex, where Iran was readying enrichment to bomb-grade uranium, or other “secret” facilities, such as the recently discovered tritium “rainbow” facility, part of the effort to build either boosted nuclear bombs or hydrogen weapons.
The only reliable way to end Iran’s nuclear program is to destroy all the nuclear facilities in the country, while putting Iran’s nuclear reactors under strict international control, not inspection.
In addition to the nuclear issue, the US needs to demand limits on Iran’s ballistic missile program. Just before the outbreak of hostilities, Iran tested an as yet unnamed intermediate-range ballistic missile that can carry a two ton warhead. This missile obviously is designed to deliver a nuclear warhead. It could be that when Israel saw this test it realized it had no choice but to act against Iran.
Part of any deal must include scrapping heavy missiles and an agreement never to manufacture them again.
Israel also will demand, and rightly so, the immediate release of all the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza and a guarantee that no weapons of any kind can be transferred to Hamas, Islamic Jihad or others who intend to attack Israel. Israel knows that if it smashes Iran, Hamas is finished because it utterly relies on weapons supplied by Iran.
Finally, Iran has to agree to no transfers of weapons of any kind to the Houthis in Yemen. Israel will not tolerate missile attacks from the Houthis any more than it will tolerate Iranian attacks against Israel.
If the Trump administration wants to negotiate a deal, either the deal has to address the nuclear issue and the hostages, and Yemen, or it isn’t worth anything.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.
