This Monday in Verona pre-URC conference, I was invited to speak on a panel. The theme was on the role of private sector in strengthening services to citizens in Ukrainian regions — a topic that sits at the intersection of public policies, foreign investments, and wartime regional development.

The moderator brought up something I’d once said: “What is turbulence for the USA is just Monday for Ukraine.” I stand by that. But if turbulence implies both ups and downs — we wouldn’t actually mind it. Because we’ve been mostly in the ‘down’ since the global financial crisis. Not just since 2022. Investment in Ukraine never really had a chance to rebound.

While neighbouring Poland have received approx. €90 bn in FDI during the last three years, climbing the GDP ladder, and closing the gap with developed EU economies, Ukraine, a country with with comparable population, had got less than €9 bn in FDI in 2022-2024.

Besides chronic underinvestment and weak capital inflows, what also does not help is deepening the fragmenting of the development across regions – the capital city of Kyiv gets on average 60-70% of FDI inflows.

But something is changing. We are three Ukraine Recovery Conferences wiser than we were in Lugano. The mood is different. Peace talks are starting to re-enter the conversation. The Ukraine Investment Framework from the EU is set up to mobilize tens of billions of euros. EU accession and getting the internal market regime with the member states is not a vague perspective anymore. Against the background of the EU competitiveness and self-sustaining policies coupled with the decreasing dependencies on China and the US, this might make Ukraine a new and interesting production hub.

One might cautiously hope this moment turns into durable momentum—and if it does, the question for regions, policymakers, and investors becomes simple: will we rise to the challenge, or miss it?

There are clear risks of missing it, and they appear across all three key points of contact between regions and foreign investors:

• Public procurement – Corruption, favoritism, and poor practices can cause lasting damage. Reputational risk spreads fast, and today’s suppliers may be tomorrow’s investors. Eroding trust at this stage can derail long-term engagement.
• Public-private partnerships – These must be structured in a streamlined, reliable, and stable way, where all parties keep their commitments. Otherwise, failed projects will generate bad publicity and deter future involvement—especially critical given the ambitious plans for airport, seaport, and other infrastructure concessions.
• Private investment projects – The key here is to create a low-bureaucracy, level playing field for anyone ready to invest. Reducing friction at this entry point sends a clear message: Ukraine is open for serious, transparent business.

From my perspective as a think tank analyst and economist, I can offer one clear recommendation: transparency. Not the abstract, moral kind—but the kind that makes markets work.

• Transparency in conflict data has enabled the creation of live risk maps by global insurance providers. This means Ukrainian regions less affected by war can start to appear on investors’ maps—maps that would otherwise mark the entire country in red.
• Prozorro and DREAM platforms offer digital access to public procurements and reconstruction project pipelines. These tools are open to anyone interested. New public investment management instruments—like the Single Project Pipeline—will significantly improve access to investment opportunities.
• Regional economic, demographic, and labor market data—still frustratingly scarce—would help businesses identify opportunities and choose production sites wisely. We are actively working to make this data available and usable.

Ukraine is already may be the most digitally visible investment landscape in a warzone. Possibly in Europe. So what could the main stakeholders do to facilitate this right king of transparency?

To regional leaders: Make yourselves visible. Use the IFIs’ tools. Work with civil society. One good project can start a wave of credibility. Just don’t kill it with silence, red tape, or misconduct.

To policymakers in Ukraine and Europe: Help the regions be seen. Fund the platforms. Promote the projects. Reform local governance so smart people don’t have to choose between public service and paying rent.

To investors: Shop now. The early movers get the best value, and Ukraine has a lot to offer.

The material was prepared with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.

Other blogs of CES experts via the link.