Afghanistan is on a familiar and dangerous path. Once again, the country risks becoming a proxy battlefield – caught between competing regional powers with its sovereignty compromised and legitimacy eroded.
History offers a stark warning: the last time Afghanistan became a chessboard for foreign ambitions, it destabilized the country for decades and left lasting scars across South Asia. The signs today are all too familiar — and the consequences, if ignored, could be profound.
Recent cross-border strikes from Afghan territory into Pakistan’s border districts, coinciding with Acting Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, underscore a troubling reality.
Kabul is no longer a neutral neighbor; it is, willingly or unwittingly, a platform for foreign agendas. Intelligence assessments in Islamabad suggest that these strikes may have been coordinated or facilitated by India, raising alarms that Afghanistan is once again being used as a strategic instrument against Pakistan.
The danger of turning Afghanistan into a proxy battlefield is not theoretical. In the 1980s and 1990s, Afghan territory became a playground for competing powers, first during the Soviet invasion and later during the US and coalition operations. The result was decades of internal conflict, weak governance and a destabilized region.
Refugee flows, militant networks and the spread of extremist ideology had spillover effects in Pakistan, Iran and beyond. South Asia paid the price for allowing Afghanistan’s sovereignty to be compromised.
Today, a similar dynamic is unfolding. Afghan forces strike Pakistani border districts just as India raises issues like Sir Creek and amplifies post-“Operation Sindoor” rhetoric.
The coordination suggests that Afghanistan is being drawn into strategic maneuvers that benefit external actors more than its own people. If Kabul repeats the mistakes of the past, it risks undermining its governance, alienating its citizens and triggering cycles of conflict that could last for decades.
The implications for Pakistan are clear. Diverting attention and resources to counter cross-border provocations weakens internal stability, stretches military readiness and reduces the country’s ability to respond to eastern threats. This dual-front challenge plays directly into India’s strategic calculus.
A Pakistan exhausted by western tensions becomes more vulnerable to pressure from the east, while Afghanistan’s involvement as a proxy amplifies Islamabad’s operational and diplomatic constraints.
Afghanistan, however, bears the heaviest cost. By allowing itself to become a tool in regional rivalries, the country erodes its own legitimacy. International donors and investors may hesitate to engage with a state perceived as a conduit for foreign strategies rather than a sovereign actor.
Domestically, citizens may question the government’s independence, fueling dissent and internal instability. History teaches that nations used as proxies rarely regain full sovereignty without long and painful struggles.
The stakes for South Asia are equally high. A destabilized Afghanistan threatens not just its borders but the broader region. Refugee flows, militant cross-border networks and economic disruptions could ripple through Pakistan, India, Iran and Central Asia.
Regional trade, security and diplomatic relationships could all be affected, creating a long-term environment of instability and mistrust.
Pakistan’s path must be one of strategic clarity. Retaliation without planning could escalate conflict and play into external agendas. Instead, Islamabad should combine strategic restraint, international advocacy and operational preparedness.
The lessons of history are stark: Afghanistan’s repeated use as a proxy has consequences that outlast any immediate political or military objectives. For South Asia, the risk is not hypothetical. If Kabul allows itself to become a pawn once again, the region could face a protracted period of instability, conflict and humanitarian suffering.
Afghanistan’s sovereignty and legitimacy are not abstract ideals – they are the foundation of regional stability. Protecting them is not just an Afghan concern; it is a South Asian imperative. Failure to learn from history risks repeating it, with consequences that may reverberate for generations.
Advocate Mazhar Siddique Khan is a Lahore-based High Court Lawyer. He can be contacted at mazharsiddiquekhan@gmail.com
