Brian Neudorff, Meteorologist at NWS Louisville, discusses the precipitation history of the Kentucky Derby and how weather impacts the race.
CHURCHILL DOWNS, Ky. – Racing fans around the world hoping for a fast track this Saturday at the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby will be monitoring several rounds of storms in the days leading up to the event.
The first leg of horse racing’s coveted Triple Crown, this year’s Kentucky Derby, starts this Saturday, May 3, at 6:57 p.m. ET, the climax of a day of races that begin at 11 a.m. ET.
Skies are expected to be clear over the Churchill Downs racetrack for the start of the race, but rounds of storms are expected to move over Louisville throughout the week ahead, beginning Tuesday afternoon.
This comes after severe storms in early April dumped 10-20 inches of rain across parts of the Ohio and Mississippi valleys, causing historic flooding in the region, including in Louisville.
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LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – APRIL 27: Journalism runs on the track during the morning training in preparation for the 151th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 25, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky.
((Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)) -
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – APRIL 27: Sandman runs on the track during the morning training in preparation for the 151th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 25, 2025 in Louisville, Kentucky.
((Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)) -
Trainer Kenneth McPeek celebrates winning the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby after Mystik Dan and Brian Hernandez Jr. were victorious at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2024. (Silas Walker/Lexington Herald-Leader/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
((Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)) -
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MAY 04: Mystik Dan #3 ridden by jockey Brian J. Hernandez Jr. crosses the finish line ahead of Sierra Leone #2 with jockey Tyler Gaffalione up and Forever Young #11 and jockey Ryusei Sakai to win the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2024 in Louisville, Kentucky.
((Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)) -
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MAY 04: Jockey Brian J. Hernandez Jr. rides Mystik Dan #3 to the finish line to win the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2024 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
((Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)) -
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – MAY 04: An interior view of Churchill Downs during the Kentucky Derby 150 at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2024 in Louisville, Kentucky.
((Photo by Jeff Schear/Getty Images for Churchill Downs))
Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg launched a multi-million-dollar cleanup effort to prepare the city for race festivities.
“We started the cleanup within 24 hours of the Ohio River receding into its banks,” Greenberg told FOX Weather in an interview earlier this month.
Greenberg said the April flood event was the eighth-largest flood in the city’s history. He credited flood walls and levees with preventing more damage and saving lives.
“All roads impacted by the flooding are cleared and operational, and work at Metro Parks impacted by the floods is wrapping up,” read part of a news release from the mayor’s office last Tuesday.
RACE WEEK BEGINS IN LOUISVILLE FOR 151ST KENTUCKY DERBY
Crews work around the clock to ensure the Kentucky Derby will be clean and ready for opening day.
Thunderstorms are forecast to move through Louisville from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening. Additional rain showers are forecast for part of the day on Friday.
People attending race-week festivities will likely have to pay attention to the forecast to dodge those storms.
However, conditions are expected to dry out just in time for race day.
Currently, FOX Weather’s exclusive Risk of Weather Impact forecast, ROWI, is “low” for the Derby itself.
The last five Derbys have been run on fast tracks. The last sloppy track was in 2019, when Country House won due to the disqualification of Maximum Security.
This graphic shows the forecast for Louisville, Kentucky, from Tuesday, April 28, to Saturday, May 3, 2025.
(FOX Weather)
This year, Journalism, a colt out of Kentucky who won the Santa Anita Derby earlier in April, is the consensus favorite, running out of the No. 8 post position.
